Cheltenham is over - Aintree is just over the hill......

Well Cheltenham Day 4 was a stinker for most punters - as none of the favourite's came in and most the winners were from outside the top 6 in the betting - which generally means the bookies won.  Out of the 7 races on Friday, The Punters Prerogative did manage to predict one winner - Brindisi Breeze @ 10/1 - so not a bad return.  The bookies may have won the battle but they haven't won the war!!

I was shocked to see Synchronised win the Gold Cup and I think it highlights that Long Run either wasn't as good as we all thought or that he has failed to progress from last years victory.  Kauto Star has beaten him twice this season and then he has failed to beat Synchronised and the Giant Bolster home - I don't want to take too much away from AP McCoy & Synchronised as it was a fair result.  Both trainer & jockey did well with their preparation to get him firing for the big day and I think most of the punters were blinded by all the Kauto / Long Run hype that they forgot about the rest of the field.  However for the National, Synchronised is carrying top weight (11st 10lbs) - and will have to be very lucky & improve a lot to make the final placings, if Jonjo O'neil decides to run him!

The Grand National at Aintree  is only a few weeks away and I am going to stick my neck on the line and predict the winner of the National and the possible place horses.  This race is traditionally a follow the money race with many horses back from long odds to single figures before the off - therefore spotting the value and backing ante-post has its advantages.  I am a firm believer in statistics when it comes to the big races and have compiled some useful hits and tips to remember when selecting your horse at Aintree.  Statistics are there to be broken is what some say but I use them a lot when narrowing big runner fields down.  The National will have 40 runners so it is vital to cut out the deadwood, so:

• No 7 year old has won the National since 1940 (Bogskar, 1940).
• Only two horses aged 11 has won the race in 16 years (Red Marauder, 2001 & Amberleigh House, 2004)
• Only one horse aged 8 has won the race in 16 years (Bindaree, 2002)

Advised: 9 or 10 years old

• No horse has carried more than 11st 5lbs to victory since 1977 (Red Rum 11st 8lbs)
• Only two horses have carried more than 11st to victory in the last 26 races.

Advised: 11st 1lb or less


On current declarations the field will comprise of 20 horses with 11stone or higher so you can almost cut your options in half.  Junior has been leading the betting and currently has 11st 2lb to carry, if as predicted many horses withdraw he will undoubtedly be saddled with even more - removing him from our equation the same with last years winner Ballabriggs who currently has 11st 9lb.

Those that do appeal with favourable weights assigned to them are Shakalakaboomboom & West End Rocker (both with 10st 12lb), and even more appealing is Champion trainers horse Niche Market (10st 5lb) who is almost a stone better off than West End Rocker on the Becher Chase form guide (but he is an 11 year old).  Although being 11 years old - he is similar to Amberleigh House the last 11 year old to win the National in that he has raced the course last year and finished a respectable 5th place.
Of the Irish raiders, Prince de Beauchene (10st 6lb) is current leading the betting for the race, and Willie Mullins has On His Own (10st 11lb but is an 8 year old) entered to complete a strong hand.  Ted Walsh has another interesting one which swerved Cheltenham last week in Seabass (10st 12lb).

After using the above elimination statistics I have whittled in down to Cappa Bleu, Chicago Grey, Prince de Beauchene, Seabass & West End Rocker of the horses with in the declared runners so far.  However, I am almost certain that Welsh National Champion Le Beau Bai will get in to run and I really liked the way he ran at Chepstow back in January.  Also his last effort when 3rd to Giles Cross at Haydock form is looking good too - unfortunately for Giles Cross he needs 21 horses to drop out to get a run.  If and when Le Beau Bai gets in to the race his price is likely to tumble and will start less than 16/1 - so my advice is to find a bookie who is Non Runner No Bet on the National and back him each way.

When backing in a big field - I would always like to have statistics on my side - so ignore these at your peril.

Cappa Bleu - 20/1 @ Ladbrokes
Chicago Grey - 25/1 @ Ladbrokes
Prince de Beauchene - 10/1 @ Ladbrokes
Seabass - 20/1 @ Ladbrokes
West End Rocker - 20/1 @ Ladbrokes
.....................................................
NAP - Le Beau Bai - NRNB - 40/1 @ Ladbrokes

Happy punting.