Well after Sprinter Sacre went in on the first day the bookmakers must have feared the worst and could see Tuesday 13th March becoming Black Tuesday - however, the clouds and fog over Cheltenham have cleared and the sun has definitely been shining on them for the best part of the week. But we are only at half time in the match and there is plenty of value to be had today.
Today is the shortest card of the festival with only 6 races coming up - but the first race looks a cracker and the field isn't too big either. Peddlers Cross swerved Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle and headed for this Grade 2 Listed Jewson Novices Chase, it looked a wise move after being beaten by him at Kempton last, and the way Sprinter Sacre hosed up here on Tuesday. That doesn't put me off Peddlers one iota and he normally runs his race around Cheltenham but the Irish challenger need to be respected too. Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls haven't had a great week so far but this could be the turning point - Cristal Bonus has the familiar Walsh / Nicholls partnership and is a decent price - while Sir Des Champs is defending an unbeaten record for Davey Russell and Willlie Mullins. It will be close but I will plump for Peddlers Cross by a short head!
The Pertemps Hurdle is a 24 runner LOTTERY - so many of the big runner fields at Cheltenham are won by something with a big price and off a decent mark. I could make a case for pretty much all of these and spend all day justifying my selections but I won't - I will give you two that will hopefully make the frame. The first is Cape Tribulation, who has the same jockey & trainer combination as Cotton Mill who was tanking along in the Neptune Investment yesterday, before bizarrely throwing Denis O'Regan off coming over 2 out. He has somewhat of a patchy record at Cheltenham but his recent forms stacks up and is a big 20/1 e/w value. The second horse to note is Buena Vista - who does know how to win around Prestbury Park with 2 wins from 20 runs. Currently sitting 2nd in the betting at best priced 10/1, I hear you ask why, well already quite far down the weights Buena Vista will has 10lb claimer Thomas Bellamy on his back meaning he has 9st 13lb much less than the other 23 runners. As I've said already this is a Lottery so don't waste too much on this race!
The Ryanair Chase and the World Hurdle are the show piece events of Thursday at Cheltenham and they are proving to be tricky ones to pick the winner for. The 2.40 seems to be the most competitive and the most open in terms of betting, James Nesbitt's horse Riverside Theatre is currently top of the betting best priced at 5/1. I think this price will be shorter come the off as it combines yesterdays 81/1 treble winning combo of Geraghty & Henderson, the latter who actually had a 4 winners on the card!! No doubt Henderson has his stables in awesome form but I am going to oppose this favourite and go for some e/w value. Captain Chris & Alberta's Run form my two picks for this race. Alberta's Run is the two time champion of the Ryanair Chase having won this race in 2010 and 2011 - he is far too big a price at 10/1 for me and will be a real danger to the field, with Champion Jockey Tony McCoy in the saddle he will be close come the finish. The other bit of each way support is for Captain Chris who was 14/1 first thing this morning - now as short as 10/1. Phillip Hobbs has not had the best of weeks but he does fancy the Captain to show up on the day and Captain Chris is 2/4 around Cheltenham. The rest of the field all demand respect and Somersby rarely runs a bad race and fails to make the top 2!!
The last race to be reviewed is the World Hurdle and the global interest in this horse race will be amazing - Big Bucks is aiming for his 16th straight win and his 7th from 8 starts at Cheltenham. Ruby Walsh as ever will be in the saddle and albeit a fall this horse should not be beaten by any of the field. He is world class and has proven again and again that he is the best Hurdler ever to have graced the green and pleasant lands of England. With the way the other odds on favourites have cost the punters this week I think he may drift in the betting and the second favourite Oscar Whiskey will attract a lot of support. The leading trainer and jockey combination for the meeting features and if the tactics of the race unfold in Oscars favour I fear Big Bucks could get beat. Big Bucks is not a front runner and likes to stalk something and come over the last cruising - most thought that Celestial Halo would run in this to provide that bit of cover - but Nicholls opted not to and is anticipating Dynaste to go off like the clappers and try to win the race, just like in January. If this race plan does not unfold and Big Bucks is left up front you can bet that Oscar Whiskey will be on his tail and will try to nick it coming off the pace.
It promises to be an interesting one and either result will make the headlines of the papers tomorrow morning. I am going to risk it for a biscuit and go with Oscar Whiskey 5/1 to beat Big Buck, with a cover on the straight forecast BB to bt OW.
Advised:
1.30 - Peddlers Cross
2.40 - Captain Chris
Singles and e/w Double
1.30 - Cristal Bonus
2.05 - Cape Tribulation
2.40 - Alberta's Run
3.20 - Oscar Whiskey
Singles and Yankee e/w
Good luck as ever and I hope you get some winnings to beat the bookies with on Gold Cup Friday!! I'll leave you with a lovely quote from Churchill which I thought was quite apt going into Day 3
Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.
Winston Churchill
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